In a viral video posted to Facebook, fitness instructor Khing Hnin Wai is seen dancing in the street of Myanmar’s capital city, seemingly unaware of the military coup unfolding behind her. The junta that controls the country has imposed a state of emergency and blocked international news channels. The military says it foiled a coup attempt by “criminal elements.” It has arrested several civilians and some Malian soldiers, but it has released few other details about the plot. It is the latest in a series of coup attempts and interventions by the junta since it seized power in August 2020, exploiting popular anger over disputed parliamentary elections.
The success or failure of coups depends on many factors. One is the strength of the armed forces, as suggested by Samuel Huntington’s “coup ceiling.” But what distinguishes a self-coup from a conventional coup is the extent to which the military backs the undertaking.
This article argues that Trump’s storming of the US Capitol building on 6 January was an attempt at a self-coup. It compares the assault to a series of other such attempts by other leaders, and empirically finds that what separates successful from failed self-coups is whether or not the military backs the undertaking. This conclusion is strengthened by the fact that the armed forces never came to Trump’s defence in his pursuit of this perilous course, and in the end prevented him from taking over Congress. The article also discusses why the US armed forces chose not to support Trump’s coup, and why this is so important.
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