Escalation refers to a military process of increasing the intensity and geographic scope of a crisis or conflict. The process of escalation is inherently uncertain and often unpredictable, but it has shaped the course of crises and conflicts throughout history. It is often triggered by the same factors that drive all wars: competition between great powers and their desire to win at all costs; determination to defend an interest or status quo; and fear of being decisively defeated.
As weapons technology advanced, the escalation of wars grew in both quantity and intensity. By the end of the 19th century, civilian populations were increasingly targeted in wars, as the demands on resources and morale pushed to new limits. The emergence of unrestricted submarine warfare and strategic bombardment of cities further increased the potential for escalation in a way that was never before seen.
Manpower escalation was the earliest form of escalation, occurring as opponents sought to attain superiority in numbers on the battlefield. Increasing the number of men on the front lines and the number of battleships, aircraft and tanks greatly multiplied the destructive power of weapons, which in turn dramatically raised battlefield casualties. This was the greatest qualitative escalation of all until the advent of nuclear weapons, which can destroy whole nations and their population as well as military targets.
A common view of many national security professionals and uniformed officers is that escalation in a real-world crisis or conflict is inherently bad. This is probably rooted in the culture of risk aversion at the Pentagon and decades of U.S. practice as a status quo power. Yet the current Ukraine crisis illustrates that a proactive approach to managing escalation by both sides can deter further escalation into a full-scale conflict.
About the Author
