A group of armed people who seek to overthrow a government by using guerrilla tactics. They are typically organized as a network and can be supported by allied unarmed people. They use propaganda to rally popular support and recruit sympathizers. The goal is to seize control of some territory, but also to inspire a mass movement that will eventually overthrow the regime and create an alternative society. Insurgency groups vary in size, strategic objectives, and methods. The most expansive, such as Maoist or jihadist insurgencies, might aim to become states and inspire emulators to engineer revolutionary change in the global power structure. Others are more limited in scope, seeking regional autonomy, replacement of one elite by another, or integration into the national power structure. Their character is shaped by broad trends in the strategic environment.
The original structure of an armed insurgency is determined by prewar political networks, such as student or religious associations or tribal ties. They then go to war, creating new organizational structures that mobilize the ties of information, obligation, and trust they have built up. These integrated groups are most difficult to dismantle, but they can devolve into a fragmented state if the top leaders are consistently eliminated by militarized counterinsurgency. Alternatively, they can break apart from internal tensions that erode their social bonds.
Next-gen insurgency groups are likely to be more virtual than their twentieth-century counterparts. They will raise funds through commercial online fundraising and purchase weapons from clandestine sources. They will communicate with each other through social media and deepfake technology to amplify their message. They will rely less on conventional violence and more on symbolic acts of terrorism, like urban bombings or sabotage to frighten those in the power structure.
About the Author
